Horse Racing System  
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Horse Racing System

A horse racing system sometimes seems to refer to an almost magical formula that will work out a winner, determine handicaps and decide who will place. However, as this is a real live sport that involves participants affected by a diverse range of factors, these systems are by no means fool proof.
There are of course, several ways in which race enthusiasts can ensure their wagers are likely to offer reasonable returns, and horse racing systems are often used to increase a punter's winning potential.

A common method of wagering

Many punters choose to employ a points system they can use to determine whether a horse is worth wagering on. Each horse will then be awarded points based upon factors that could determine its, and the jockey's performance. The horse accumulating the most points is, in theory, the one that should win.

This points system can be as simple or as complex as the punter desires. If a horse has not raced before it may enter the horse racing system at between 1% and 2%, rather than at 0% to allow for the 'unknown' factor. In many cases, horses that have participated in a limited number of races but have achieved excellent places fare better in these systems. There needs to be some positive adjustment for those that are more experienced or have more substantial track records, having competed in a higher number of races.

Factors in a race

In creating any meaningful system, the factors associated with a specific race are important, with a range of aspects to take into account.

Firstly, a horse's consistency must be calculated. This can be achieved by dividing the number of races run by the number of times it has placed, or been a winner. For example, if a horse has run 10 races and won two it will score a consistency rating of 20% which would be considered fair to middling. A horse with anything over 40% suggests better odds. Once again, if a horse has no recorded wins it can be placed in the horse racing system between 1% and 2% simply to offer it an 'unknown' value but this is clearly speculative.

A horse's class can be calculated by dividing the sum of money it has made in its career to date, by the number of races it has run. If a horse has previously been successful but has not placed well in recent months, this must also be taken into account and any viable system should allow for this.

Calculating winning percentages

Trainer's and jockey's statistics should also be considered when designing a horse racing system. The winning percentage of both can easily be ascertained. By studying the trainer's and jockey's winning percentages an average can be calculated and worked into the rating system.

Speed of course is another important factor. A horse's speed rating should be based not only upon its last race, but on several prior races. An overall rating for speed can be computed by comparing speed ratings over the last 60 days, or other appropriate period and should be one of the more important features on a rating system.

If a horse has recently won a race, or several races, this should also be noted. The distance is especially important here; some horses fare well over shorter distances and vice versa. If two horses are equal in winnings at the same distance then other rating factors must be compared to see which represents the more favourable option.

Calculating the odds

Once a rating system has been established it must be used to figure out fair odds for each race. If you base your rating system on eight different categories, you will need to design a sliding scale of bets and determine the stake that should be wagered on each horse in order to offer a realistic return, should your prediction be correct.

These are the basics for creating a simple horse racing system and although this is by no means a fool proof way of predicting a winner, it does offer punters a far greater chance of eliminating many of the more obvious risks, keeping the focus on runners which may stand a good chance of placing or winning.

For a system to work, it must be consistent and must address the fundamentals of the horse, the jockey, the trainer and racing history. Without these basics the results can be far too variable and it will be hard to track results and develop that all-important pattern in making predictions.
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