Horse Racing System
A horse racing system sometimes seems to refer to an
almost magical formula that will work out a winner,
determine handicaps and decide who will place. However, as
this is a real live sport that involves participants
affected by a diverse range of factors, these systems are
by no means fool proof.
There are of course, several
ways in which race enthusiasts can ensure their wagers are
likely to offer reasonable returns, and horse racing
systems are often used to increase a punter's winning
A common method of wagering
punters choose to employ a points system they can use to
determine whether a horse is worth wagering on. Each horse
will then be awarded points based upon factors that could
determine its, and the jockey's performance. The horse
accumulating the most points is, in theory, the one that
This points system can be as simple or
as complex as the punter desires. If a horse has not raced
before it may enter the horse racing system at between 1%
and 2%, rather than at 0% to allow for the 'unknown'
factor. In many cases, horses that have participated in a
limited number of races but have achieved excellent places
fare better in these systems. There needs to be some
positive adjustment for those that are more experienced or
have more substantial track records, having competed in a
higher number of races.
Factors in a race
creating any meaningful system, the factors associated
with a specific race are important, with a range of
aspects to take into account.
Firstly, a horse's
consistency must be calculated. This can be achieved by
dividing the number of races run by the number of times it
has placed, or been a winner. For example, if a horse has
run 10 races and won two it will score a consistency
rating of 20% which would be considered fair to middling.
A horse with anything over 40% suggests better odds. Once
again, if a horse has no recorded wins it can be placed in
the horse racing system between 1% and 2% simply to offer
it an 'unknown' value but this is clearly speculative.
A horse's class can be calculated by dividing the sum
of money it has made in its career to date, by the number
of races it has run. If a horse has previously been
successful but has not placed well in recent months, this
must also be taken into account and any viable system
should allow for this.
Trainer's and jockey's statistics
should also be considered when designing a horse racing
system. The winning percentage of both can easily be
ascertained. By studying the trainer's and jockey's
winning percentages an average can be calculated and
worked into the rating system.
Speed of course is
another important factor. A horse's speed rating should be
based not only upon its last race, but on several prior
races. An overall rating for speed can be computed by
comparing speed ratings over the last 60 days, or other
appropriate period and should be one of the more important
features on a rating system.
If a horse has
recently won a race, or several races, this should also be
noted. The distance is especially important here; some
horses fare well over shorter distances and vice versa. If
two horses are equal in winnings at the same distance then
other rating factors must be compared to see which
represents the more favourable option.
Once a rating system has been established
it must be used to figure out fair odds for each race. If
you base your rating system on eight different categories,
you will need to design a sliding scale of bets and
determine the stake that should be wagered on each horse
in order to offer a realistic return, should your
prediction be correct.
These are the basics for
creating a simple horse racing system and although this is
by no means a fool proof way of predicting a winner, it
does offer punters a far greater chance of eliminating
many of the more obvious risks, keeping the focus on
runners which may stand a good chance of placing or
For a system to work, it must be
consistent and must address the fundamentals of the horse,
the jockey, the trainer and racing history. Without these
basics the results can be far too variable and it will be
hard to track results and develop that all-important
pattern in making predictions.