HORSE RACING RATINGS EXPLAINED


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Racecard

RACECARDS

 

No. OLIVERS MOUNT wears the number 8 saddlecloth.

Drw OLIVERS MOUNT is drawn to run from starting stall 10. Starting stalls are not used for National Hunt (jumps) racing.

Form The horse's last four race finishing positions.

Horse The horse's racing name.

BF If a horse was a Beaten Favourite last time out it will be flagged in RED next to the horses name along with the SP of that run.

G The horse's gender

DSR The number of days since the horse last ran.

DNR The number of days to the horse's next run ( where this information is available).

Hgr Which type of headgear ( if any ) the horse is wearing in today's race.

Age The horses age.

Jockey The Jockey's name.

All The amount in pounds (Lbs) that the (not fully experienced) jockey can 'claim' - i.e the amount of weight the horse has to carry is reduced by the jockeys claim amount.

Trainer The Trainer's name. Numbers in brackets are the number of entries in this race ( where there is more than one ).

Wt The amount of weight the horse is due to carry (less any jockey 'claim' - see above).

OR The horse's Official Handicap Rating - the horse's ability rating as deemed by the Jockey Club.

Ng Our first Neural Rating is compiled by feeding over 20 years worth of complex horse racing data through a sophisticated Neural Net and then applying the result to today's race details.

Nx Watch any television program about horse racing or read the racing press and you will see that experts often disagree on who will win a particular race. With this in mind this second Neural Figure sees the same 20 years of data fed through a different Neural Net and then as before applied to today's race.

Please note that the highest rated horses under Ng & Nx are colour-coded in Yellow, whilst the second-highest rated horses are coloured-coded in Light Yellow.

SF2 The second best Speed Figure a horse has obtained in the previous 12 months.

SF1 The best Speed Figure a horse has obtained in the previous 12 months.

Please note that the highest rated horses under Ng & Nx are colour-coded in Yellow, whilst the second-highest rated horses are coloured-coded in Light Yellow.

Favourite Percentages The strike rate of the favourite in the equivalent type of race over the last five years.

Last Years Winner The Winner of this race last year ( where there was an equivalent race ).

Summary Box Selections This is a summary of all the Top Rated selections that are highlighted by our main ratings in the SUMMARY BOX. In this list it is then brought down to single selections to try and point to the likely contenders in a given race. In the table above you can see that three horse in particular are highlited more than once and the number of times they are highlighted is shown next to their name in brackets. No figure in brackets next to the name means they have only been mentioned once.

 

In the example above you can see FONTERUTOLI has Six Mentions [6] , OLIVERS MOUNT has Three Mentions [3] and NUBAR BOY has Two Mentions [2] leading you to the conclusion that in this case these three horses may be the likely contenders in this race.

 

The final result sees NUBAR BOY oblige at 10/1 with OLIVERS MOUNT coming 3rd at 9/4.

 

It may potentially pay dividends to follow selections that are showing a figure in brackets of [9] or above which during testing were winning at a range of prices and showing a strike rate of around 50%.

 

Summary Box

SUMMARY BOX

During our many years of business we have long been aware that not only do we have Professional Members who use our ratings to build up an overall picture and for full blown form study but we also have members who for one reason or another do not use our long standing service to the fullest extent possible. This can of course happen for a whole variety of different reasons but both professional and amateur all have one thing in common i.e. they need our information to be presented in an easy to read format.

The Summary Box does exactly that and it is quickly clear which horse or horses our Top Rated are telling you may potentially be in with a chance in todays race.

In the example above we can very quickly see that MAGIC SKYLINE is highlighted ( Top Rated ) no less than NINE TIMES.

Unsurprisingly MAGIC SKYLINE obliges at 15/8 winning by no less than 14 Lengths !!

It may potentially pay dividends to follow selections that are highlighted NINE TIMES or more and there is no need for you to count this figure in the Summary Box as you will also find the full list of Horses repeated and summarised on the RACECARD in the Summary Box Selections.

During testing Summary Box selections highlighted [9] times or more were winning at a range of prices and showing a strike rate of around 50%.

 


RACECARD COLOUR HIGHLIGHTING

Below the racecards you will see much more detailed Jockey and Trainer information in table form. To help bring this information into an easy to read format our racecards feature colour coding to show Hot Jockeys ( Pink ), Hot Trainers ( Salmon ) and 10 Day Trainer Form ( Green on Racecard Numbers ). To qualify as a HOT a Jockey or Trainer has to be in Profit in the corresponding table.



TRENDS FOR COURSE DISTANCE GOING AND CLASS

Trends for the COURSE, DISTANCE, GOING and CLASS of the race under anaysis all brought together and then displayed in one easy to read table. You are able to see instantly how each horse has run previously in each category making this ideal for finding horses to WIN, PLACE or even LAY. This single table alone is extremely powerful and it would take you many hours of form study using traditional means to pull all this data together for a single race, let alone for multiple races at multiple meetings.

 

 


DRAW ADVANTAGE

Taken from our massive database of information all the races of the same number of runners and same distances are analysed to find the draw trends for each individual race. This then accurately shows us the exact strike rates from each range of stall numbers.

 


LATEST SPEED FIGURES

Here we can see the Speed Figures for each of the horses five previous runs displayed side by side in chronological order. We can then also see the SF2 and SF1 Speed Figures as displayed on our racecards. All this information together allows you to very easily make comparisons on whether a horse may potentially be improving or declining over time.

 

SF2 The second best Speed Figure a horse has obtained in the previous 12 months.

SF1 The best Speed Figure a horse has obtained in the previous 12 months.

 

 


LATEST FORM LINES

This table allows all aspects of a horses form to be viewed in one very easy to read table. The form is then also tied in with its Speed Figure, Official Rating and our unique EP Ratings making finding those with a real chance in any given race very easy indeed.

 

Horse The horses racing name as displayed on the racecard.

Date The date of the race under analysis.

Course The racecourse where the race took place.

Dir The direction of this racecourse i.e. Left, Right or Figure Of 8

Type The type of race i.e. whether it was Turf, All Weather or National Hunt Racing.

Going The official going for the race.

Distance The distance of the race.

Class The Class of the race.

Race Value The Prize Money won by the race winner.

Weight The weight the horse carried in the race.

Pos The finishing position of horse in the race.

Runners The number of runners in the race.

Btn The distance beaten where the horse did not win.

SP The Starting Price of the horse.

1st How many horses in this particular race have Won their races since the date of this race.

Pla How many horses in this particular race have been Placed in their races since the date of this race.

Unp How many horses in this particular race have remained unplaced in their races since the date of this race.

Std Is the race Winners time Faster or Slower than Standard Time.

SF The RaceXpert Speed Figure for this run.

OR The horses Official Raing as awarded by the Official Handicapper.

EP The EP Rating awarded by RaceXpert for this run.


RaceXpert Knowledge

THE KNOWLEDGE

Probably one of RaceXperts most popular features ever this piece of super analysis leaves no stone unturned when it comes to Winner Finding Pointers. The runners are sorted by SF AVG4 (An average of the horses last four speed figures) and here is an explanation of each piece of information displayed.


Horse - The Racing Name Of The Horse

CLS ( Class ) up in class or down in class, by how many classes or at the same level as todays race

DST ( Distance ) up in distance or down in distance, by how many furlongs or at the same distance as todays race

CLS - W Number of Wins in this class

CLS - R Number of Runs in this class

CLS - % Number of Wins in this class expressed as a percentage

DST - W Number of Wins at this distance

DST - R Number of Runs at this distance

DST - % Number of Wins at this distance expressed as a percentage

GNG - W Number of Wins on this going

GNG - R Number of Runs on this going

GNG - % Number of Wins on this going expressed as a percentage

MTH - W Number of Wins this month

MTH - R Number of Runs this month

MTH - % Number of Wins this month expressed as a percentage

SF Best - Highest Speed Figure recorded in the last two years

SF RC - Second Highest Speed Figure in the last 12 months

SF 1 LTO - Speed Figure Last Time Out

SF 2 LTO - Speed Figure Second Last Time Out

SF 3 LTO - Speed Figure Third Last Time Out

SF AVG 4 - An average of the horses last four speed figures


RaceXpert EP Ratings

EP RATINGS

Originally featured in the software version of RaceXpert as a rating calculated on the horses last run it was always the intention of the creator of Expectancy against Performance ratings to have the horses last three runs available. We have now done this and then taken these superb ratings a step further by providing an Average of the last three EP ratings plus a further column called AVG + which is then used to sort the order. The actual EP calculation is derived from our own secret formula, developed over a considerable amount of time, and it takes into account many factors. Everything is then pulled together, quantified, displayed and ranked.


EP 3 LTO - EP Figure Recorded 3 Runs Ago

EP 2 LTO - EP Figure Recorded 2 Runs Ago

EP 1 LTO - EP Figure Recorded 1 Runs Ago

EP AVG 3 - An average of the last three EP figures

Best of 3 - The highest EP rating in the last three runs

EP AVG + - The highest EP rating of the last three runs added to the average of the last three ratings.

 

RaceXpert EP Ratings

EP FORM

On nearly every form study tool there is you will find Jockey and Trainers stats displayed in exactly the same way and indeed we also display them in this traditional manner in our original Jockey and Trainer Form tables. There is however a long standing issue with this as we will now explain for you.

First of all let's take an imaginary Jockey called “George Kingston” to use in our explanation.

In two weeks time “George Kingston” is likely to be crowned champion Flat jockey of the year. Throughout the year he would have won more races than any other jockey. But is it fair to say “George Kingston” is the best jockey purely because of the number of winners he has had?

Surely the number of winners he has had is proportional to the number of races he has ridden in. The more rides he has, the more likely he is to have more winners.

A far better method to determine who is the best is to look at the strike rate.

Looking at the current strike rate table reveals “George Kingston” is indeed the best jockey. He currently tops the table based purely on strike rate with other Jockeys this year close behind him.

But again, is it fair to determine who is the best purely on strike rate? The best jockeys are most likely to be riding the best horses. They will ride more favourites whilst lesser known jockeys will be riding outsiders with little chance of winning.

The best way to rank jockeys is to determine which jockeys are producing more winners than expected ( which we call EP FORM ).

If we divide the number of actual winners a jockey has achieved by the number of expected winners, we can produce an index which shows who really is the better jockey.

The expected number of winners is derived from the price of the horse. Evens shots win about 50% of the time. So if a jockey rode ten evens shots, we would expect him to win five races. If a jockey rode ten 9-1 shots, we would expect him to win one race.

In our JOCKEY & TRAINER EP FORM tables we have taken a time period of 5 years and looked at the last 50 rides. We have done this for JOCKEYS, TRAINERS and JOCKEY & TRAINER combinations for ALL CODE SPECIFIC rides. Code specific means FLAT, NH or ALL WEATHER individually.

This information you will see displayed in the first three EP FORM tables features all of the past CODE SPECIFIC runs ( using the filter above ) of participants taking part todays race.

In the second three EP FORM tables you will then see the same information but now only for the COURSE of todays race under analysis  i.e. you do not have to trawl through reams and reams of stats to find the information applicable to just this individual RACE and COURSE.

All of these six tables are sorted by their EP VALUE, which means that Jockeys or Trainers currently performing better than expected will be at the top of the table and usually showing a positive value.

Jockeys or Trainers not currently performing as well are at the bottom of the tables and will also ( although not always ) often be seen with minus EP Values.

We have also carried out a PROFIT or LOSS calculation in each case based on backing all the runners at SP ( Starting Price ).

Regardless of how they are analysed Jockey and Trainer Stats can never be taken as an absolute measure in complete isolation i.e. you need to also factor in the horse !! But having said that you will still find those rated at the top of these tables winning much more than those at the bottom, making this extremely valuable information to both BACKERS and LAYERS alike.


RaceXpert Best

BEST

The BEST SPEED FIGURE as featured in THE KNOWLEDGE table is the highest speed figure recorded by a horse in the last two years. Although higher figures may have been recorded over longer time spans we have found the last two years to be the most relevant. It is not unusual to see these horses suddenly go in at big prices and this unique table allows you to analyse in great detail all aspects of class and official rating at a single glance.


Horse - Horse Name

Date - Date Best Speed Figure Achieved

CLS - Class Of Race Best Figure Achieved In

OR - OR Rating When Best Figure Achieved

OR Today - Today's Official Rating

SF Best - Best Speed Figure

OR +-= - Plus or Minus ( number ) OR Rating is from Best Figure Race To Today's Race

CLS +-= - Plus or Minus ( number ) of race Classes from Best Figure Race To Today's Race

RaceXpert Quickform

QUICKFORM

Although you will find a huge number of Winners will come from the Top Four Horses in this table here you can see how QUICKFORM helps to point you in the direction of other possibilities. Showing the highest Speed Figure at this Course and with the most suitability GREEN BOXES, a particular horse is being flagged up here as a potential race Winner. The result is that on this occasion FOXY MUSIC wins at a very tasty 14/1.


Horse - Horse Name
When the horse name is coloured green this directly references the TEN DAY TRAINER FORM table further down which shows Trainers who over the last ten days are currently in Profit when backing all their runners at SP.

Jf Colouring in this column references the TEN DAY JOCKEY FORM table further down and shows Jockeys who over the last ten days are in Profit when backing all their mounts at this course at SP.

Tf Colouring in this column references the TEN DAY TRAINER FORM table further down and shows Trainers who over the last ten days are in Profit when backing all their runners at this course at SP.

Age The age of the horse as displayed on the racecard.


The next six sections of QUICKFORM reference the horses SUITABILITY for todays race conditions. You will notice that each horse either has a Green Box or a Red Box with two numbers in it. Green shows suitability and Red unsuitability based on its past runs.


The two numbers in each box show how many times the horse has achieved ( if in a Green Box ), or failed to achieve ( if in a Red Box ) a WIN or PLACE in its last 24 months of code specific runs. So for example 2/8 in a Green Box in the Co Win Column would be 2 Wins out of the last 8 code specific runs at todays course, 0/8 in a Red Box in the Co Win Column would mean that the horse has run 8 times but has never Won at todays course.


Be aware that 24 months is the maximum amount of time used to make these calculations as past testing has shown this to be the optimum time span. You will also note that some horses have run more often than others. For a more detailed breakdown of the previous 24 months of code specific runs please check the TREND TABLE further down.


Co Win The horse has won ( or not ) at todays COURSE.

Co Pla The horse has been placed ( or not ) at todays COURSE.

Di Win The horse has won ( or not ) at todays race DISTANCE.

Co Win The horse has been placed ( or not ) at todays DISTANCE.

Go Win The horse has won ( or not ) on todays GOING.

Go Pla The horse has been placed ( or not ) on todays GOING.


Trend This is the placing of the horse in the TREND TABLE. In the TREND TABLE we have taken into account information such as Course, Distance, Going and Class and then used a unique proven formula to rate the horses in order of their expected race trend. When this is tied together with the SUITABILITY you have an extremely powerful crosscheck facility.


Best Speed Figure These four columns show the BEST SPEED FIGURE that each horse has achieved in a given set of race conditions.


Co The horses best Speed Figure recorded at this COURSE.

Di The horses best Speed Figure recorded at this DISTANCE.

Go The horses best Speed Figure recorded on this GOING.

Cl The horses best Speed Figure recorded in this CLASS of race.


Tot Rns - This column shows the number of code specific runs this horse has run in the last 24 months and has been used to calculate the Rate % columns.


Rate % These two columns show the horses trend for both Winning and / or Being Placed based on all of its code specific runs for the last 24 months which is then expressed as a percentage. After extensive testing we also decided to use the PLACE PERCENTAGE as the default sorting for the whole of the QUICKFORM table and you will find an amazing amount of winners and forecasts will come from the top few horses !!


Highest Class Win This section of QUICKFORM provides you with a detailed breakdown of a Horses Highest Class Win which then enables you to accurately rate just how good a particular horse is.


Date The date of this horses Highest Class Win

SpF The Speed Figure this horse recorded when achieving its Highest Class Win

Cl The Class of the Highest Class Win

Clv The difference between the horses Highest Class Win and the Class of todays race

OR The horses Official Rating ( OR ) when it recorded its Highest Class Win

ORv The difference between the OR of the Highest Class Win and the OR in todays race


Pm AbRa It is generally accepted that the amount of Win Prize Money a horse has won is an accurate measure of a horses ability. Our Prize Money ABILITY RATING takes into account a horses Win Prize Money for the last two years i.e. a high figure means it has won a large amount of Prize Money.


RaceXpert Handicap

HANDICAP REPORT

First column - The horse's name

Second column - Today's OR ( Official Rating )

Third column - The difference between the last run OR and today's OR

Fourth column - The difference between the OR of the horse's latest win and today's OR


Next follows up to a maximum of 8 handicap runs within the last two years, code specific with the latest run is on the left. Each run shows the OR for the run and the distance beaten.


Handicap Screen Colouring


GREEN - The horse ran in a higher class than the class of today's race

ORANGE - The horse ran in the same class as the class of todays race

RED - The horse ran in a lower class than the class of today's race

YELLOW - The horse won that run

 

Note : In the case of Irish Racing where Class Information is not genereally available we make an approximation of the likely Race Class before making any other Class based calculations.


There are a multitude of different ways to use the Handicap Report. Below is an example which may give you some thoughts on how to develop your own. During testing on a completely random day it resulted in four selections giving an 11-1 winner, 11-1 and 7-1 thirds and one unplaced. In the example race above SAM NOMBULIST was the only qualifier on another day and it duly obliged at a very nice 8-1 !!


Rules - 3yo+ Flat(Turf and All Weather) Handicaps


1. Consider only runs that are coloured green.

2. Starting with the latest run and working across the screen - the first column of runs on the left of the screen - stop at the first column that has either a "green yellow win" or a green beaten by no more than 1 length run.

3. If only one that is the selection. If more than one take the horse that has the best difference between the OR for the run and today's OR.


Just to re-iterate again that the method above is given PURELY AS AN EXAMPLE of how the information provided in this report may potentially be utilised.


RaceXpert Master Form Speed

MASTER FORM SPEED

Column


1. Racecard Number same as the first column on the Racecard screen

2. Racing name of the horse

3. Age of the horse

4. Gender of the horse

5. Highest speed figure of the horses last three runs

6. Faster than Class RaceXperts own winning speed pars reflected in Faster than Class figures for each class of race. A plus figure indicates a performance from one of the horses last three runs that is faster than the speed par for todays class.

7. Formspeed A unique feature only available in RaceXpert . The figures represent improvement or decline in horses relevant to each other, and not in isolation. These figures need to looked at in conjunction with a horses highest winning class race.

8. Class Speed the highest speed in the highest class where the horse won or was placed second or third.

9. Class of highest win the actual class is shown

10. Well In The Well In at the weights is a measure of how favourably or otherwise a horse is being treated by the Official Handicappers. Again the formula used to produce these figures is exclusive to RaceXpert A plus figure indicates the horse is favourably treated at the weights and, conversely, a minus figure means the horse is not well treated by the Official Handicappers.


COMMON SENSE WARNING

There are many horse racing rating services that will imply that blindly backing their particular top rated horses will make you a profit. This simply is NOT TRUE and we would NEVER advise anyone to blindly back top rated horses regardless of the data supplier being used. Take your time and carefully assess ALL of the information being supplied and then make a sensible judgement call based on past experience, study of the many excellent books on the topic of horse racing and the knowledge that our ratings will help to point you in the right direction.


If horses were machines, then ratings alone could be accepted at near face value. But race horses are not machines; they are animal athletes whose performances in many instances are governed by stable intentions as well as the physical condition of the horse. You will therefore never be able to get it right every time. However what you will do with the help of RaceXpert is build a picture of the race under analysis and by putting the odds in your favour reap the potential long term benefits.


With Speed Figure winners at 100/1 and 66/1 and members telling us of 2600/1 successful forecast we know that our ratings are unquestionably the best in the market place. This is also why we have been successfully providing ratings since 2002. Members also occasionally let us know what about RaceXpert based methods that are working well for them which we then share with fellow RaceXpert Members.

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